An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean is anticipated to enter the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf this weekend, with potential for gradual organization if it remains over the warm waters north of Mexico. Current weather models show uncertainty in development; however, the unique geography of the Bay of Campeche often leads to systems exceeding model expectations, prompting close monitoring of the situation as the system may evolve into a low-pressure area.
According to the European forecast model ensemble, low-pressure scenarios are forecasted to track into northeastern Mexico by early next week. While most projections suggest a weak system, the possibility of a stronger formation is represented by a small segment among many possible outcomes. Despite current hostile wind shear inhibiting organized thunderstorms, conditions may improve over the weekend as the system encounters lighter upper-level winds off Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, potentially allowing for better organization.
Regardless of whether the system intensifies, significant rainfall is expected to impact Central America and southeastern Mexico throughout the weekend. As the disturbance moves west-northwest, inclement weather could reach the Rio Grande Valley in South Texas by Monday.
In the Atlantic, conditions are expected to remain mostly calm, with little likelihood of further developments in the early part of July. This marks a period for preparedness, especially for those in areas potentially affected by the disturbance, underlining the importance of weather awareness ahead of the hurricane season.