The Bay Area is bracing for another round of rain Sunday night as a cold front approaches from the Pacific, maintaining an active weather pattern through Monday morning. Rain is expected to begin in the North Bay after sunset, gradually moving southward overnight. The heaviest rainfall, accompanied by a chance of thunderstorms, is anticipated to occur between midnight and 4 a.m., driven by a narrow band of instability in the atmosphere.
Following the initial surge of rain, scattered showers will persist into the early hours of Monday, with most regions not seeing a complete tapering off until midday. Rainfall amounts are projected to be typical for this type of system, with the North Bay and Santa Cruz Mountains receiving between 1 to 2.5 inches by Monday afternoon, while lower elevations around the Bay Area may see between half an inch and 1.5 inches. In particularly intense pockets, rainfall rates could reach 0.5 to 1 inch per hour, posing a risk for minor flooding.
Due to the recent rainfall, soils across the region are saturated, prompting the NOAA to issue a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through Monday morning. Fortunately, the rapid passage of the cold front should help mitigate the potential for severe flooding, with nuisance flooding being the most likely scenario—such as clogged drains and surface ponding in low-lying areas.
Forecast models indicate a band of heavy rain could reach the Bay Area around 2 a.m. on Monday, with winds from the south expected to rise through Sunday evening, peaking overnight. Most areas are forecasted to experience gusts between 30 to 35 mph, although some coastal and mountainous regions may see stronger bursts.
As scattered showers linger into early Monday afternoon, there’s a prospect for partial clearing later in the day. However, cloudy and cool conditions are expected to dominate, with temperatures remaining in the 50s and low 60s.
This latest weather development serves as a reminder of the dynamic conditions in the Bay Area, with communities prepared to respond to the challenges posed by heavy rainfall while hoping for brighter days ahead.