On Friday night, the Mountain West Conference will feature a significant showdown as the 6-1 UNLV Rebels take on the 5-1 Boise State Broncos. This matchup is crucial for the College Football Playoff picture.
Historically, Boise State has dominated this series, boasting a 4-0 record against UNLV, including a decisive 44-20 victory in the Mountain West Championship last season.
Key player Ashton Jeanty is expected to be the star of the evening, but attention should also be paid to another player whose opportunities are worth considering for potential wagers.
Here’s a preview of the Boise State versus UNLV game, including predictions and betting options.
Boise State vs. UNLV betting odds
Team Spread Moneyline Total Boise State -3.5 (-105) -165 o64 (-110) UNLV +3.5 (-115) +140 u64 (-110)
When Boise State is on offense
Ashton Jeanty has been a standout this season, racking up 1,248 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns over just six games, positioning himself to challenge Barry Sanders’ longstanding records.
Currently, he shares the top spot in the Heisman betting odds with Miami’s Cam Ward, making this game an opportune moment to display his skills.
UNLV’s defense has been solid against the run, allowing just 3.4 yards per carry, ranking 25th nationally. Leading the Rebels’ defense is linebacker Jackson Woodard, a contender for the MWC Defensive Player of the Year award with 63 tackles and 8.5 for loss.
Despite having a strong defense, UNLV struggled against Jeanty in their previous encounter, where he rushed for 153 yards and a touchdown. If defensive coordinator Barry Odom can manage to contain Jeanty during early downs, it may force Boise’s quarterback Maddux Madsen into errors, as he has more turnover-worthy plays (seven) than big-time throws (three) this season.
UNLV’s defensive secondary is noteworthy, ranking in the top 20 for coverage grades, with standout safety Jalen Catalon making a significant impact.
When UNLV is on offense
The Rebels have undergone a transition at quarterback, switching from Matthew Sluka to Hajj-Malik Williams after a midseason NIL issue. Williams has proven to be the better choice, completing 70.5% of his passes and averaging 9.5 yards per attempt, compared to Sluka’s 43.8% completion rate and 6.6 yards per attempt.
Wide receiver Ricky White has flourished with Williams, averaging 122 receiving yards per game since the change.
Boise State’s pass defense has struggled, ranking 102nd in EPA for pass defense and 122nd in tackling grades, allowing White ample opportunity for big plays against a potentially high-scoring Broncos team.
Boise State excels in run defense, allowing only 2.9 yards per carry, positioning UNLV to rely more on its aerial attack rather than their ground game.
Betting preview
Initially, Boise State opened as a slight favorite, and their odds have improved to a 3.5-point favorite. However, considering the factors involved, the home team might provide value against the spread.
Boise State has faced a tougher schedule—ranking 65th compared to UNLV’s 99th—and offers a considerable step up in competition for the Rebels, who struggled against Oregon previously.
Furthermore, Boise State has the advantage of rest, coming off a bye week while UNLV plays on a short week.
A viable betting option is to back wide receiver Ricky White, with a same-game parlay on FanDuel that includes White surpassing 80 receiving yards and scoring a touchdown at -125 odds, a favorable wager since he has consistently met these benchmarks in all four games since Williams took over as quarterback.
Best bet: Ricky White 80+ receiving yards and a touchdown (-125, FanDuel).