The ongoing civil war in Syria, now in its 13th year, has seen a significant resurgence with a surprising rebel offensive targeting Aleppo, a vital city and historical trade center in the country. This marks the first major opposition attack on Aleppo since 2016, when a concerted air campaign by Russian forces enabled President Bashar Assad to regain control over the city amidst a landscape of ongoing conflict.
The renewed clashes have amplified concerns of escalating violence in the region, particularly as U.S.-backed Israel engages with Hamas in Gaza and confronts Hezbollah in Lebanon, both of which are allied with Iran. Robert Ford, the last U.S. ambassador to Syria, suggested that recent Israeli military actions against Syrian and Hezbollah strongholds, alongside a ceasefire with Hezbollah, have inadvertently presented an opportunity for rebels to escalate their activities.
The conflict has claimed around half a million lives, with approximately 6.8 million Syrians fleeing the country, significantly influencing political dynamics in Europe. The remaining territories of Syria, approximately 30%, are under the control of a mix of opposition groups and foreign troops, including about 900 U.S. soldiers stationed in the northeast to counter the resurgence of the Islamic State. Additionally, Turkey maintains a military presence and influence over various opposition factions within Syria.
This abrupt shift in the battlefield dynamics, described as potentially “consequential and game-changing,” poses significant risks, particularly if it emboldens Islamic State fighters or draws Russia and Turkey into direct confrontation. The rebel offensive is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group designated as a terrorist organization by both the U.S. and the U.N. HTS, under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has attempted to rebrand itself over the years, distancing from its extremist origins.
Historically, Aleppo has been a melting pot of commerce and culture, housing approximately 2.3 million people before the war. The city served as a flashpoint for opposition forces after they seized the eastern side in 2012. However, following intense military pressure and a brutal siege by government forces in 2016, rebels were forced to surrender, a pivotal moment that reinforced Assad’s grip on power.
This year’s renewed offensive comes amid continued Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah and Syrian military installations within Aleppo, highlighting the complex interplays of power, regional interests, and the protracted nature of the Syrian conflict.
Although the situation remains precarious, there is hope that a focus on civilian governance and reducing extremism among certain rebel factions, as demonstrated by HTS, could pave the way for a more stable political future in the region. The ability of these groups to evolve could foster a climate where peace-building efforts are more viable in the long-term, ultimately benefiting both the Syrian populace and the broader Middle East.