The Wisconsin football team began its season with two victories, though both performances were underwhelming as they failed to cover the spread despite being heavy favorites.
This Saturday, the Badgers find themselves in an unfamiliar position as double-digit underdogs at home, hosting fourth-ranked Alabama at Camp Randall Stadium. Given the strength of their opponent, this underdog status is expected.
The question remains: can Wisconsin keep the game competitive or even pull off an upset against one of the most prolific scoring teams in the nation? In their last encounter with an SEC opponent at home as double-digit underdogs, the Badgers shocked then-top-five LSU at Lambeau Field.
Current betting odds for the Wisconsin-Alabama matchup are as follows: Wisconsin is a +16 spread, Alabama stands at -790 on the money line, and the total points are set at 48.5. Alabama has a record of 1-1 against the spread this season, while Wisconsin has not yet covered, sitting at 0-2. Alabama’s first game against Western Kentucky saw them surpass the total points line, while last week’s game against South Florida went under the expected total. Conversely, both of Wisconsin’s games have fallen short of the over.
ESPN’s prediction model heavily favors Alabama, giving them a 92.2% chance of victory.
In terms of stats, Alabama, led by Heisman Trophy hopeful Jalen Milroe, boasts the seventh-best scoring offense in the nation, averaging 52.5 points per game. They scored 63 points in their season opener and 42 in their latest outing, requiring a strong fourth-quarter performance to achieve that total. Defensively, Alabama allows only 8 points per game, ranking 17th in the country. They recorded a shutout in their first game and permitted 16 points in the next.
On the other hand, Wisconsin ranks 87th among 133 teams in scoring offense with an average of 27.5 points per game. They required late touchdowns to secure victory in their opening match and began their second game strong but ended up cooling off, finishing with 27 points. Defensively, the Badgers are ranked 40th, giving up an average of 13.5 points per game.
Predictions from local analysts suggest Wisconsin may face its first defeat of the season against the title-contending Crimson Tide, with estimates of Alabama winning 27-17 and 35-10 from different reporters. Fan sentiment also appears to be pessimistic regarding the Badgers’ chances in this matchup against Alabama.