Australia will recognize a Palestinian state in September, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese saying the formal step will be made at the United Nations General Assembly. He framed the move as support for a two-state solution and said it is contingent on commitments received from the Palestinian Authority, including that Hamas will have no role in a future state.
Albanese outlined additional conditions tied to recognition: demilitarization, general elections, an end to payments to families of prisoners and those killed in conflict, reforms in governance and education, and international oversight to prevent incitement to violence and hatred.
New Zealand is weighing the same step, with Foreign Minister Winston Peters saying recognition is a matter of when, not if, and a cabinet decision due in September. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon called the Gaza crisis an “absolute human catastrophe” and stressed the need to consider the decision carefully.
Australia’s announcement aligns it with the United Kingdom, France, and Canada, which have said they plan to recognize Palestinian statehood in September. If Wellington also proceeds, four of the Five Eyes partners—UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand—would recognize a Palestinian state, leaving the United States increasingly apart from close allies on this question.
Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said she notified her US counterpart, Marco Rubio, ahead of the announcement. A US readout of their call did not mention Palestinian statehood. Rubio has argued that such declarations are largely symbolic and risk emboldening Hamas.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned the recognition moves as “shameful” and said they would not alter Israel’s position. Israel has announced an expansion of military operations in Gaza, including a planned takeover of Gaza City that could involve the evacuation of up to a million people—plans that United Nations officials and UN Security Council members warned would trigger another calamity and further violate international law.
UN humanitarian officials say Gaza is now experiencing starvation. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification warned last month that a worst-case famine scenario is unfolding. Since October 2023, at least 98 children have died from severe acute malnutrition—37 since July 1—according to figures cited to the UN Security Council from health authorities in Gaza.
Public pressure has intensified. More than 460 people were arrested at a major protest in London over the weekend, and in Sydney, police estimated more than 90,000 people marched across the Harbour Bridge to protest the humanitarian crisis; organizers said turnout was closer to 300,000, with more demonstrations planned.
Why this matters
– Recognition by Australia, and potentially New Zealand, adds momentum behind a two-state framework among key Western partners and could increase diplomatic pressure for a ceasefire and humanitarian access.
– Conditioning recognition on PA reforms and the exclusion of Hamas signals that statehood support is tied to governance, security, and accountability benchmarks—aimed at creating a viable, peaceful future state.
– If four Five Eyes members proceed, the US will face heightened allied pressure to articulate a clear path toward a political resolution, even if Washington does not immediately follow suit.
Additional comments
– Recognition alone will not resolve core issues—borders, security guarantees, Jerusalem, refugees, and Gaza’s postwar governance—but it can reset diplomatic dynamics and provide leverage for negotiations.
– The reform conditions listed by Australia indicate a push for legitimacy and stability in Palestinian institutions, which could unlock broader international support and aid if implemented.
– For Israel, allied recognition moves may be seen as undercutting its security concerns. However, a clearly defined, demilitarized Palestinian state with robust oversight could, in time, reduce the drivers of conflict if paired with enforceable security arrangements.
A constructive path forward
– Coordinated recognition linked to concrete milestones—elections, institutional reform, and security arrangements—could create a roadmap that both incentivizes progress and addresses legitimate security concerns.
– Expanded humanitarian access and ceasefire efforts remain urgent to reverse the spiraling hunger and civilian suffering in Gaza, which otherwise risk undermining any diplomatic gains.
Summary
Australia will recognize a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly in September, contingent on PA assurances including no role for Hamas, demilitarization, elections, and reforms. New Zealand may follow, and the UK, France, and Canada have signaled similar timing, potentially leaving the US at odds with four of its Five Eyes partners. Israel rejects the moves as dangerous, while the UN warns of imminent famine and escalating humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza amid plans for expanded military operations. The recognition wave signals a strategic shift toward a conditioned two-state pathway, aimed at catalyzing diplomacy and relief efforts despite profound challenges on the ground.