NASA has reported that the asteroid 2024 YR4, sized between 130 to 300 feet, currently has a 1.5% chance of hitting Earth in 2032. This percentage reflects a decrease from the previously estimated 3.1%, as determined by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies after recent observations. NASA anticipates that the likelihood of impact will continue to fluctuate as additional data is collected.
Though YR4 could cause considerable damage if it were to strike, it is not large enough to induce a mass extinction event. Astronomers have characterized it as a potential “city killer,” meaning it could devastate a major urban center if an impact occurred. Bruce Betts, chief scientist of The Planetary Society, emphasized that a collision over a metropolitan area like Paris or New York could effectively obliterate the city and surrounding regions.
The asteroid, detected late last year and logged with the Minor Planet Center, has garnered attention due to its non-zero impact probability, placing it on NASA’s Sentry Impact Risk Table. It is currently the only known large space rock with any immediate risk of collision. YR4 is rated a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which classifies the threat level of near-Earth objects.
Through April, YR4 will remain visible from Earth, offering astronomers an opportunity to gather more data with ground-based telescopes. While it won’t be observable again until June 2028, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope is scheduled to study the asteroid from orbit in March.
While the possibility of an impact remains concerning, it is important to note that ongoing observations and advancements in detection technology help scientists better assess and understand these potential threats, ensuring that preparedness measures are in place should the odds of impact rise in the future.