Space agencies have increased the estimated likelihood that a potentially devastating asteroid could collide with Earth in 2032. The asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, is currently assessed to have about a 3% chance of impact, a notable increase from the 2.6% assessment given by NASA just days earlier, and considerably higher than the initial estimate of 1% when the asteroid was first identified.
While this updated risk assessment marks the highest probability assigned to any asteroid to date, scientists maintain that the odds are still in favor of Earth remaining safe. The probability of YR4 impacting Earth is approximately 1 in 32 according to NASA’s latest calculations, as opposed to the European Space Agency’s slightly lower estimate of 2.8%.
If a collision were to occur, astronomers have pinpointed December 22, 2032, as the predicted date. However, experts believe that further observations and studies will likely reduce the chances of an impact as more data becomes available.
In light of this developing situation, space agencies are not taking any chances. For instance, China is actively forming a “planetary defense” unit that would adopt strategies similar to NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) to protect the planet from potential threats. The 2024 YR4 asteroid is estimated to be between 130 to 300 feet wide, which is sufficient to cause significant destruction—potentially comparable to the energy released by a nuclear bomb—should it strike Earth.
Experts, like CBS News space consultant Bill Harwood, have reassured the public by clarifying that a collision with YR4 would not have catastrophic global effects akin to the asteroid that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs. However, they note it would still be a significant disaster.
This heightened awareness and proactive planning from space agencies emphasize the importance of monitoring near-Earth objects and preparing for any potential risks. With advanced technology and international collaboration, humanity is better equipped to avert such cosmic threats.