An image featuring an ASML logo alongside the flags of the United States and China was taken in Brussels, Belgium, on January 4, 2024, as ASML provided insight into the potential impact of U.S. export restrictions on its advanced chip manufacturing equipment to China.
The Dutch chip equipment manufacturer disclosed in its earnings report, which was released a day early due to a technical issue, that it anticipates net sales for 2025 will be between 30 billion euros and 35 billion euros ($32.7 billion to $38.1 billion). This forecast reflects the lower end of the company’s previous guidance.
ASML plays a crucial role in the global chip supply chain, with its extreme ultraviolet lithography machines utilized by major chipmakers, including Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, to manufacture sophisticated chips.
In the third quarter, ASML reported net sales of 7.5 billion euros, exceeding expectations, but net bookings of 2.6 billion euros ($2.83 billion) fell short of the consensus estimate of 5.6 billion euros.
Following this news, ASML’s stock price dropped by as much as 16%, resulting in a loss of over $50 billion in market capitalization in just one day.
The disappointing bookings have been attributed to weaknesses among certain customers, including Intel and Samsung. Additionally, ASML indicated that geopolitical tensions are influencing its outlook for 2025.
Roger Dassen, ASML’s chief financial officer, addressed analysts, noting expectations of a decline in sales to China next year due to U.S. export limitations. He stated, “We all read newspapers, right? We all see that there is speculation around export control… That is a driver for us to take a more cautious view on the China sales.”
UBS analysts indicated that ASML’s revised 2025 projections were primarily due to delays in the development of new logic fabrication facilities by Intel and Samsung, suggesting that sales to China could decrease by 25% to 30% in 2025.