An ASML logo appears on a circuit board alongside the flags of the United States and China in a photo taken in Brussels, Belgium, on January 4, 2024.
ASML has revealed the impact of U.S. export restrictions on its advanced chip manufacturing tools to China, affecting its sales forecast in the Asian market.
In its earnings report released early due to a “technical error,” the Netherlands-based chip equipment manufacturer announced that it anticipates net sales for 2025 to be between 30 billion euros and 35 billion euros ($32.7 billion to $38.1 billion). This projection is on the lower end of ASML’s previous guidance.
ASML plays a critical role in the global chip supply chain, with its extreme ultraviolet lithography machines utilized by major chip producers like Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing for advanced chip production.
The company’s net sales for the third quarter reached 7.5 billion euros, surpassing expectations. However, net bookings were only 2.6 billion euros ($2.83 billion), significantly under the consensus estimate of 5.6 billion euros from LSEG.
Following this news, ASML’s shares dropped by as much as 16% on Tuesday, leading to a loss of over $50 billion in market capitalization in just one day, according to calculations by CNBC using LSEG data.
The decline in bookings, attributed to reduced demand from key customers like Intel and Samsung, combined with ASML’s concerns over geopolitical tensions, has influenced its outlook for 2025.
Roger Dassen, ASML’s chief financial officer, noted during an analyst call that the company expects a decline in sales in China next year, driven by U.S. export controls. He emphasized the need for a cautious approach regarding revenue from China, highlighting ongoing media speculation around export restrictions.
UBS analysts pointed out that ASML’s revised 2025 guidance primarily reflects delays in the development of new logic fabrication plants by Intel and Samsung, suggesting that sales to China could decrease by 25% to 30% in 2025.