Marco Lavagna, the head of Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec), has unexpectedly resigned just days before the agency is set to release its January inflation data, which will feature a long-awaited methodological change by the government. His departure was communicated directly to Indec employees rather than through official channels to the government, raising eyebrows and sparking discussion about the underlying reasons.
There have been ongoing concerns regarding the salaries of top officials at Indec, but Lavagna’s resignation hints at deeper issues within the agency. Notably, the heads of departments responsible for measuring prices and poverty had previously resigned, indicating significant unrest. Earlier this year, retroactive adjustments were made to previous months’ activity indicators, resulting in more favorable figures that helped prevent the appearance of a recession, which would have occurred if the economy had shown declining activity over two consecutive quarters.
The new price index, set to be applied for the first time in January, addresses a longstanding complaint that Indec’s figures have consistently underestimated inflation. This call for recalibrating the inflation metric was notably backed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as well.
It is evident that the price indicators are not aligning with the government’s expectations, and the notion that the economic growth could rely solely on sectors such as Vaca Muerta and banking lacks credibility. Lavagna’s resignation has led to increased speculation about potential political pressures affecting the integrity of the statistical data produced by Indec, raising concerns about transparency.
As Argentina navigates these complexities, the situation calls for vigilance to ensure the accuracy and reliability of economic indicators, which are crucial for both policymakers and the public. The hope is for a clearer and more transparent statistical landscape that reflects the true economic condition of the country.