Old Farmer’s Almanac projects a milder, drier winter for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in 2025-26, with the most snow expected around the holidays and later in the season for Philadelphia, New York City, and Washington, D.C. Temperatures across the region are forecast to run above average.
Snow outlook
– Snowfall is expected to be below normal overall. The period most likely to see snow remains late December, early January, and late February.
– Last winter brought about 8.1 inches of snow to Philadelphia, while New York City and Washington, D.C. each recorded more than 15 inches.
Temperature outlook
– The Almanac anticipates above-normal temperatures for the region, with the coldest stretches appearing in mid-to-late December and again in late January.
– The area already experienced notably cold conditions in recent years, with Philadelphia recording a cold spell in 2024-25 and the city reaching 10 degrees in January; New York City also hit 10 degrees, and Washington, D.C. saw 15 degrees during similar cold snaps.
2025-26 winter forecast in context
– The forecast describes a “mostly mild with pockets of wild” winter nationwide. While near-normal to slightly milder temperatures are expected in many areas, parts of the Appalachians south through the Southeast and Florida, and extending west across the Ohio Valley, could experience colder-than-normal conditions.
What’s shaping the forecast
– Solar Cycle 25 has peaked, which historically contributes to warmer averages.
– La Niña is fading and moving toward neutral conditions in the Pacific.
– The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation remains warm, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation stays cool, influencing storm tracks.
– The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is shifting, a factor that can affect the polar vortex.
– The polar vortex may wobble, potentially sending bursts of cold air and snow into the United States.
Practical takeaways
– Even with a milder overall pattern, keep snow shovels and umbrellas handy, as cold snaps and localized snow events can still occur.
– Home winter-prep remains important: check heating systems, seal leaks, and maintain emergency supplies in case of sudden cold spells.
– Drivers should stay alert to timing around late December and January when snow chances rise, and monitor local forecasts for any shifts in the pattern.
Summary note
Overall, forecasts point to a milder winter for much of the region with occasional cold spells and snow, particularly around the holiday period. A balanced approach—staying prepared for bursts of winter weather while expecting generally milder temperatures—is prudent for residents from Philadelphia to New York and Washington, D.C.