Allan Lichtman, a historian known for his accurate predictions of U.S. presidential elections, has stated that Kamala Harris will win the upcoming election in November. Despite previously advising against the removal of Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate, Lichtman believes that Harris, who has stepped in as the nominee following Biden’s withdrawal in July, is set to defeat Donald Trump.
In a video for the New York Times, Lichtman emphasized that although the Democrats have relinquished the advantage of incumbency—one of the 13 keys he uses for his predictions—he remains confident in Harris’s chances. He declared, “Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States – at least that’s my prediction for the outcome of this race,” while urging citizens to exercise their voting rights.
Lichtman bases his predictions on a series of true/false statements rather than polling data. He has previously criticized the idea of replacing Biden after a problematic debate performance and has dismissed polls suggesting Biden’s chances would suffer as a result.
Out of the 13 keys, Lichtman identified eight that favor Harris. He cited the lack of a strong third-party candidate following Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign withdrawal, positive economic indicators, significant legislative accomplishments by the Biden administration, and the absence of scandals surrounding the White House. Additionally, he noted that Harris did not face a competitive party nomination process, as many potential challengers quickly endorsed her ahead of last month’s Democratic National Convention.
Lichtman mentioned that even if two unresolved keys regarding foreign policy outcomes favored Trump, it would not be enough for him to secure victory.
A professor at American University, Lichtman has been predicting presidential election outcomes since 1984 and claims to have accurately forecasted all but one election result, which was George W. Bush’s contentious victory over Al Gore in 2000. He argues that many disallowed ballots from Gore supporters unfairly marred that outcome.