The protracted civil war in Syria, which has persisted for 13 years, has gained renewed attention due to an unexpected offensive by rebel forces in Aleppo, one of the country’s largest cities and a historical commercial center. This recent development signifies what may be one of the strongest rebel actions in years, marking the first significant opposition attack on Aleppo since 2016 when intense bombing by Russian forces assisted Syrian President Bashar Assad in reclaiming the city.
The escalating conflict not only highlights internal struggles but also poses a potential risk of reigniting broader violent confrontations in the Middle East. This is especially pertinent as the U.S.-backed Israel continues its confrontations with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both of which maintain ties to Iran.
Robert Ford, the last U.S. ambassador to Syria, indicated that Israel’s recent military operations targeting Hezbollah and Syrian sites may have unintentionally created an environment conducive for Syrian rebels to launch their offensive.
The ramifications of this renewed fighting are significant, considering that the war has resulted in an estimated half a million deaths and displaced around 6.8 million Syrians, contributing to political shifts in Europe due to rising anti-immigrant sentiments. Currently, about 30% of Syria is not under Assad’s control, with a mixture of opposition groups and foreign military presence, including around 900 U.S. troops positioned in the northeast to combat potential resurgence of ISIS.
Experts posit that the current surge in violence has the potential to alter the landscape of power within Syria, particularly if Assad’s forces are unable to defend their territories effectively. Additionally, concern arises regarding the possibility of ISIS taking advantage of the chaos. The interest of external players like Russia and Turkey, each possessing their own motivations, also adds complexity to the situation and may lead to direct confrontations if the combat escalates.
The rebel group leading the Aleppo offensive, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has a controversial history. Initially founded by Abu Mohammed al-Golani, its evolution has been marked by attempts to distance itself from its extremist roots. In recent years, HTS has shifted its focus toward governing civilian lives in its territories and even allowed moments of religious tolerance, such as the first Christian Mass in several years in Idlib.
Historically, Aleppo was a bustling metropolis with a pre-war population of approximately 2.3 million. The city fell into rebel hands in 2012 but experienced a devastating siege by government forces supported by Russian airstrikes in 2016, which ultimately led to its fall to Assad’s regime.
The ongoing situation remains fluid and complex, with the potential for significant changes in the Syrian conflict landscape. Despite the grim current state, each shift offers opportunities for dialogue and peace-building initiatives that could pave the way for a stable Syria in the future.
In summary, while the latest offensive in Aleppo poses serious risks and may contribute to ongoing instability, it also underscores the resilience of opposition forces and the possibility for renewed political dynamics in the region. There remains hope that all parties involved, including international actors, can leverage this moment towards constructive solutions that prioritize the Syrian people’s needs.