The ongoing civil war in Syria has gained renewed attention due to a surprising offensive initiated by rebel forces in Aleppo, a significant city and long-standing commercial center in Syria. This offensive marks one of the most substantial rebel actions in recent years, following a prolonged period of relative stability in the conflict.
The recent attack represents the first significant opposition effort in Aleppo since 2016, a time when a heavy military campaign by Russian forces assisted President Bashar Assad in regaining control of the area. Since then, Russia, alongside Iran and Iranian-affiliated groups, has played a crucial role in bolstering Assad’s regime, which currently maintains authority over approximately 70% of Syria.
The resurgence of conflict in Aleppo arises against a backdrop of regional tensions, with ongoing hostilities involving Israeli forces against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon—two groups backed by Iran. Robert Ford, the former U.S. ambassador to Syria, noted that preceding Israeli military operations targeting Syrian and Hezbollah positions have likely provided an opening for the rebels to advance.
The implications of this renewed fighting are significant. The conflict has already claimed an estimated half-million lives and displaced around 6.8 million Syrians, contributing to political shifts in Europe due to the refugee crisis. Control of the remainder of the country, which is not under Assad’s regime, is divided among various opposition forces and foreign troops, including around 900 U.S. personnel stationed in northeast Syria to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State.
Experts suggest the latest fighting could have far-reaching consequences, particularly if government forces struggle to maintain control. Charles Lister from the Middle East Institute warns that if the Islamic State sees an opportunity to exploit this chaos, the ramifications could extend the conflict further.
Furthermore, the dynamics of the conflict may evolve if Russia and Turkey enter into more direct confrontations, given their distinct interests in Syria. The group leading the Aleppo attack, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has been designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and U.N., despite attempting to rebrand itself and promote governance in the territories it controls.
Aleppo, rich in history and commerce, was home to 2.3 million people before the war. It became a focal point for rebel aspirations when opposition forces initially captured the eastern part of the city in 2012. However, a relentless siege backed by Russian air power ultimately forced the surrender of rebels in 2016, marking a pivotal moment in the civil war.
In recent months, Israeli airstrikes in Aleppo have targeted military assets belonging to Hezbollah and Assad’s forces, although these strikes are seldom acknowledged by Israel.
Despite the tumultuous backdrop of the conflict, there remains a sliver of hope for peace and recovery in the region. The ongoing efforts by groups within Syria to respond to civilian needs reflect a resilience among the population yearning for stability and governance. With diplomatic avenues and international support, there may be a pathway toward rebuilding and resolving the longstanding grievances stemming from the conflict.
In summary, the revival of fighting in Aleppo underscores the fragile state of the civil war in Syria, with potential implications not just domestically, but across the region. The situation remains fluid, and while challenges abound, there is a continued aspiration among many Syrians for a resolution to the conflict.