Carlos Alcaraz, the top-seeded player at the Japan Open 2025, is poised to meet Brandon Nakashima in the quarterfinals. Alcaraz, a six-time Grand Slam champion, has demonstrated exceptional form throughout the tournament, defeating Sebastian Baez and Zizou Bergs without dropping a set. Meanwhile, Nakashima displayed resilience by overcoming Jordan Thompson in a challenging opener and then defeating qualifier Marton Fucsovics soundly.
Alcaraz’s season has been remarkable, accumulating seven titles, including the prestigious Roland Garros and US Open. His victories span across various tournaments such as Rotterdam, Monte Carlo, Rome, London, and Cincinnati, along with runner-up finishes in Barcelona and Wimbledon. This season, Alcaraz made history with his second US Open title after a four-set battle against Jannik Sinner. Statistically, his performance is impressive with 403 aces and converting 45% of 640 break points.
In contrast, Nakashima is still in pursuit of his first singles title since 2022. Despite several promising runs to the semifinals in Houston and Mexico and a doubles title in Delray Beach, inconsistency has been a challenge for Nakashima. His performance statistics reveal 453 aces and a 36% conversion rate on 322 break points.
Alcaraz owns a narrow head-to-head advantage over Nakashima, having defeated him at the 2021 Next Gen ATP Finals. The Spaniard’s superior ranking and remarkable form make him the clear favorite in this encounter. Bookmakers reflect this sentiment with Alcaraz heavily favored to win, offering odds of 1/20, compared to Nakashima’s 9/1.
As the match approaches, expectations are high for Alcaraz to continue his dominant display. However, Nakashima’s ability to pressure the world number one could make for an intriguing contest. While an upset is always possible, the odds heavily support Alcaraz advancing to the semifinals, likely in straight sets. In a year where Alcaraz has shattered records, this match serves as an opportunity for Nakashima to test himself against the very best.