The devastating storm that recently struck western Alaska highlights significant gaps in weather forecasting capabilities, particularly due to cuts implemented during the Trump administration. These cuts have led to a critical shortage of weather balloon data in the region, which is essential for accurate weather predictions.
Weather balloons, typically launched twice daily, collect vital information regarding wind patterns, humidity, temperature, and other meteorological data. This information feeds into advanced computer models that predict weather conditions. Unfortunately, as Typhoon Halong approached Alaska last week, the limited availability of weather balloon data meant that forecasters struggled to anticipate the storm’s intensity and path.
Initial forecasts inaccurately predicted that the most severe impacts of the storm would be felt further south and west, as demonstrated by the Global Forecast System (GFS), which consistently showed a stronger storm heading in a different direction than where it eventually made landfall. Regions like Kwigillingok and Kipnuk, which experienced significant storm surge flooding, were not prominently featured in early predictions.
Rick Thoman, a meteorologist at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, noted that the gaps in balloon data are well-documented and likely affect forecasts across the United States. Currently, key locations in Alaska such as Kotzebue and St. Paul Island have no active balloon launches, while other areas like Bethel and King Salmon have reduced their launches to just one per day.
The storm, which struck on Sunday and continued its trek into the Arctic Sea, resulted in wind gusts reaching up to 107 mph, causing widespread destruction and displacing over 1,000 residents from their homes. Tragically, at least one death has been confirmed in Kwigillingok, with search and rescue operations ongoing.
U.S. Coast Guard officials described the situation as indicative of a worst-case scenario. Capt. Christopher Culpepper remarked on the severe consequences of the storm, underscoring the challenges faced by forecasters under constrained resources. According to a NOAA official, the lack of balloon data significantly hampered forecast accuracy, although they acknowledged that forecasting errors were not unprecedented.
The need for weather balloon data is critical, and the ongoing dilemma of data shortages reflects broader challenges faced by the National Weather Service (NWS). The agency is in the process of hiring additional meteorologists and technicians following these cuts.
While the complete impact of the missing balloon data on forecasts for Typhoon Halong may never be fully assessed, the situation serves as a crucial reminder of the importance of robust meteorological data collection. By investing in and restoring weather monitoring capabilities, communities could significantly improve their preparedness for severe weather events in the future.