The Utah State Aggies are set to face off against the San Diego State Aztecs in San Diego, California, with the game scheduled to tip off at 11 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1. San Diego State enters the matchup as the slight favorites, with a spread of 1.5 points and a moneyline of -125. The total points for the game are established at 146.5.
For this game, my prediction leans towards the Aggies, particularly siding with Utah State on the moneyline, which is priced at -110.
Utah State is currently navigating a tough stretch on the road, having recently suffered a loss against Nevada. Despite the challenging schedule, the Aggies have demonstrated impressive offensive efficiency, ranking 21st nationwide. They excel in shooting, boasting a remarkable 60% from 2-point range—a statistic that places them among the top 10 in the country—as well as a solid 36.2% from beyond the arc. Key players for the Aggies include Mason Falslev and MJ Collins, each averaging over 16 points per game, both performing admirably with shooting percentages above 50%.
Additionally, Utah State excels at securing offensive rebounds, grabbing 34.8% of their missed opportunities, bolstered by the efforts of Garry Clark and Karson Templin, who both have impressive offensive rebound rates. Defensively, Utah State ranks 35th in efficiency, utilizing a matchup zone that emphasizes forcing turnovers and limiting opponents’ scoring opportunities. The Aggies force turnovers about 20% of the time while keeping opponents’ 2-point shooting to 47%.
On the other hand, San Diego State has struggled this season, despite returning several experienced players from last year’s team that narrowly made the tournament. The Aztecs remain a formidable defensive unit under the guidance of coach Brian Dutcher, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency and forcing turnovers at a rate of 21%. However, their rebounding has been an area of concern, yielding 30% of offensive rebounds to their opponents, which poses a critical issue against a team like Utah State that capitalizes on second-chance scoring.
Offensively, San Diego State has encountered difficulty, ranked 108th in offensive efficiency. With leading scorer Reese Dixon-Waters averaging only 12 points per game and struggling with shooting accuracy, the team lacks a reliable offensive leader. This difficulty, coupled with their tendency to turn the ball over 17.5% of the time, could prove detrimental against a disciplined Utah State team.
In this matchup, Utah State’s strategic ball-handling and offensive capabilities could exploit San Diego State’s weaknesses. Expect the Aggies to capitalize on the Aztecs’ decision-making issues.
Overall, my prediction is that Utah State has the potential to secure a victory on the moneyline.