The expiration of the New START treaty, aimed at regulating nuclear arms between the United States and Russia, has intensified the existing tensions among the world’s major nuclear powers. As the treaty ended this week, experts fear a new arms race could be on the horizon, with both superpowers now free from established limitations. Washington’s desire to involve Beijing in future nuclear agreements contrasts with Moscow’s push for dialogue that includes European powers, particularly France and the UK.
China has been notably evasive regarding its nuclear capabilities, maintaining a position of ambiguity. Currently, it is estimated to possess approximately 600 nuclear warheads, significantly less than the roughly 1,700 deployed by the US and Russia. However, analysts suggest that China is ramping up production, with projections indicating their arsenal could increase to between 1,000 and 1,500 warheads by 2030-2035. Retired Admiral Charles A. Richard has urged that current assessments may underestimate China’s capabilities, suggesting a cautious approach would be to consider these estimates as possibly doubled or tripled.
The lack of transparency from China raises concerns over potential miscalculations. Political analyst Ja Ian Chong noted the complications that arise from China’s limited willingness to disclose its true nuclear status, positing that such secrecy could afford Beijing protection of its arsenal while hampering adversaries’ countermeasures.
Unlike Russia and the US, which established a direct communication line following the Cuban Missile Crisis, China lacks a similar mechanism for immediate dialogue. Admiral Richard emphasized the importance of communication in managing volatile situations involving nuclear arsenals. Furthermore, China’s reluctance to participate in global disarmament talks arises from its current standing, needing parity with the US and Russia before considering formal engagement.
Russia, aiming to shift the focus to Europe, insists that France and the UK must be part of any future agreements, arguing that their inclusion would create a unified Western approach to nuclear discussions. Yet, with both European nations possessing fewer than 500 nuclear warheads combined, this proposition is controversial, especially for France, which has resisted treating its arsenal as negotiation leverage for larger powers.
Meanwhile, voices from the US, like former chief negotiator Rose Gottemoeller, stress the importance of initiating conversations with China about nuclear risk management, even if formal arms control discussions remain off the table. Establishing communication channels regarding missile launch notifications and other safety protocols could pave the way for greater transparency and cooperation.
As nations navigate these complex dynamics, the focus may increasingly shift toward fostering dialogue around nuclear risks, recognizing that understanding intentions and capabilities among nuclear powers is essential in preventing future conflicts. The current atmosphere, while fraught with challenges, also presents an opportunity for dialogue and a potential pathway towards stability in nuclear relations.