Aaron Judge’s pursuit of a third AL MVP in four years remains the dominating storyline of the 2025 season, with a recent elbow scare proving no obstacle to his unprecedented production.
Through 107 games, Judge leads Major League Baseball in a string of key indicators: batting average at .339, on-base percentage at .447, slugging at .697, OPS at 1.144, and OPS+ at 212. He also sits atop the league in total bases with 271 and WAR at 6.6, while carrying the Yankees with 92 runs scored and 37 home runs. Even after a ten-day layoff for a right elbow flexor strain, Judge has returned with numbers that match the best of his career.
His damage isn’t limited to raw power. Judge is reaching base in roughly 45% of his plate appearances and, when he makes contact, it’s with heavy authority. His hard-hit rate is around 55.6%, and he’s barreling up pitches at a 21.5% clip, underscoring a level of control and consistency that has become his hallmark. Advanced metrics reinforce the portrait of a hitter at peak efficiency: a 26.2% strikeout rate with a 16% walk rate, a .460 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), and a fly-ball rate of 54.8%.
Cal Raleigh has done everything possible to complicate the race, pacing the majors with 42 home runs and driving in 90 runs, a remarkable stretch for a catcher. Tim Kelly, who has followed the story closely, notes that Raleigh’s achievements are even more impressive given the physical toll of catching night after night. Yet the gap between Judge and Raleigh remains clear in the broader context of the AL: Judge’s batting average advantage, the all-around production, and the enduring impact on the Yankees’ lineup.
If Raleigh played in the National League, he would likely be the runaway MVP favorite; in the American League, Judge’s all-encompassing excellence keeps him firmly in the lead. Judge’s combination of elite hitting across the board, durability, and late-season form has him in position to join Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout as the only active players with three AL MVP trophies. At 33, Judge remains a central figure for both fans and scouts, a player whose presence demands immediate attention from opponents and teammates alike.
The bigger story, beyond numbers, is what this means for the Yankees as they navigate a season of ups and downs. Judge’s ability to carry the lineup, even during stretches of turbulence, gives the franchise a clear thread of optimism heading into October. With Judge dictating the pace and the league-wide expectations high, the MVP race continues to tilt in his favor, and the baseball world waits to see if this current run will culminate in another chapter of Judge’s award-winning narrative.