A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes have declined.
The authors of the study express concern that this shift could lead to shortages of these medications. GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone regulating blood sugar and appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 by approving Wegovy for weight loss.
Since then, both pharmaceutical giants Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the increasing demand for GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical data from 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes fell from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure diabetes patients still have access.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not be fully representative of the national situation.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects and their ability to help users lose up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these medications have led Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Despite this, high demand has made it difficult for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will hit $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption among approximately 31.5 million Americans—about 9% of the population—by 2035.