Pessimism with Hope
By Jorge Rocha, academic at ITESO
The soon-to-conclude six-year term leaves behind a unique political landscape, marked by both positive and negative outcomes for the government. President López Obrador has not only served as the head of state but has also established himself as the undisputed leader of his party, which is currently renewing its presidency, controlling the Legislative Power, and governing in 24 states across the country. Since the early 1980s, when the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) held hegemonic power with no solid political counterbalance, we have not had a governing party with such political strength.
Unlike those earlier times, this political power is supported by high and solid public approval, which has been downplayed by commentators, political analysts, and opponents. However, recent electoral results show that the majority of Mexicans firmly support López Obrador’s political project and that of his allies. Ignoring this aspect of the current moment would indicate a profound analytical blindness.
The upcoming six-year term will provide President Claudia Sheinbaum with all the formal and political tools to implement the programs, projects, and initiatives of López Obrador’s government. She is the most voted leader in 40 years, has a completely favorable Congress, enjoys the backing of 75% of Mexico’s governors, and is part of a party that has become a highly efficient electoral machine. At least during the first three years of this administration, the governing political force will have no excuses for failing to deliver results and making substantial progress in addressing pressing issues such as insecurity, human rights, economic and territorial inequality, corruption, fragile democracy, and environmental crises.
On the other hand, the political opposition in Mexico is deeply weak and lacks significant capacity. Over the past decade, the parties that currently form the opposition—National Action Party (PAN), PRI, and the now-defunct Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD)—have squandered their political capital. Meanwhile, the Citizens’ Movement Party (MC) has not managed to establish itself as an attractive political option at the national level. Recent electoral outcomes have reduced these parties to a largely testimonial role, as they lack the tools to counter the ruling party and its allies.
For at least the next three years, this political scenario is expected to continue. The least these political institutions can do is to alert citizens to potential errors or misconduct by Morena and its allies. The internal fractures within the PRI and PAN are glaringly obvious, and there is a clear disconnect between the majority of the populace and these traditional parties. To overcome this crisis, these parties must engage in deep reflection and change to clarify their positions, locate themselves within the political spectrum, reconcile with the electorate, and democratize their internal structures.
In a political landscape characterized by an overwhelming ruling party and a testimonial opposition, political checks and balances should emerge from civil society organizations, social movements, and business groups. These social actors must enter into dialogue and negotiation, and, in some cases, conflict with formal political power. This could represent a significant opportunity to strengthen and enhance social organization efforts, which are always welcome in a democracy. Without aiming to create a hollow narrative, I dare say it is the hour of the citizens; it is time to foster spaces for organization that seek the common good, strengthen our fragile democracy, and demand results from the current government.