Stocks have slid roughly 9 percent from their late‑January highs, but Carson Group’s chief market strategist says investors should not brace for a full‑blown bear market in 2026 — at least not yet. In a note published on April 1, Ryan Detrick argued that a combination of rising earnings, record profit margins and the way the recent sell‑off has unfolded make a 20 percent decline from recent highs unlikely barring a major external shock.
Detrick used the conventional definition of a bear market — a 20 percent fall on a closing‑price basis from recent highs — and pointed to several data points in support of his view. S&P 500 consensus earnings for the next 12 months have risen about 6.7 percent so far this year, he said, with roughly 3.6 percentage points of that gain occurring since “the war started.” All 11 S&P sectors have seen their earnings estimates move higher over that period, although technology accounts for much of the index‑level improvement. At the same time, forward profit margins for the S&P 500 have climbed to an all‑time high of 15.0 percent, up from about 12.0 percent at the end of 2019.
The timing and character of the pullback also figure prominently in Carson’s analysis. The S&P 500 peaked on January 27 and did not register an initial 5 percent drop until March 18 — roughly seven weeks later. Detrick and others point out that past bear markets have tended to start with a much faster move lower: historically, the first 5 percent sell‑off in prior bear markets occurred in fewer than 15 trading days, whereas this cycle’s move to 5 percent took 35 trading days. CFRA U.S. equity strategist Sam Stovall, quoted by Detrick, noted that a bear market has “never started” when the initial 5 percent pullback took this long to appear.
History also favors the bulls, Carson argues. This bull market has already passed its three‑year mark, and markets that survive that milestone have more often extended at least another year. Detrick likens sustained rallies to a cruise ship — hard to slow and harder to turn — and notes that of the major post‑war bull markets that reached three years, most went on to celebrate a fourth, and several to a fifth, birthday. That historical pattern, combined with the earnings and margin backdrop, makes a rapid slide to minus‑20 percent less likely in his view.
The firm’s analysis does come with caveats. Detrick acknowledges that a sudden escalation in the Middle East or another large external shock could change the odds quickly. Geopolitical risk has already influenced estimates, as shown by the portion of earnings upgrades tied to developments since the conflict began, and such shocks have the capacity to push risk assets sharply lower.
Carson Group’s note adds to a broader debate among strategists about the durability of the current bull market amid lingering macro uncertainty — particularly around Federal Reserve policy and labor market dynamics. For now, Detrick’s bottom line is guardedly optimistic: the technical shape of the pullback and the still‑robust profit picture argue against an immediate transition into an official bear market, though investors should remain alert to outsized geopolitical or economic shocks that could overturn that assessment.