The San Francisco 49ers, the reigning NFC champions, find themselves in a challenging situation as they prepare to face the New England Patriots in Week 4 at home. With a record of 1-2, the 49ers have been missing crucial offensive players, including standout running back Christian McCaffrey, and have suffered two straight losses on the road, the latest being a 27-24 defeat to the Rams last week. Meanwhile, the Patriots are also at 1-2, having lost their most recent game against the Jets 24-3 last Thursday. In their last encounter, San Francisco dominated New England with a 33-6 victory in October 2020.
The game will take place at Levi’s Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. The 49ers are currently favored by 10.5 points, while the total points over/under sits at 42. Prior to making any predictions for the matchup, it is advisable to consult the NFL forecasts and betting insights from a reputable computer model.
This model has simulated every NFL game 10,000 times and has demonstrated consistent success, earning over $7,000 for $100 players on top-tier NFL selections since its launch. It comes into Week 4 of the 2024 season, boasting a commendable record of 188 wins and 130 losses on its premium NFL picks dating back to 2017. Furthermore, it is currently on a strong 42-22 streak with top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model has also ranked among the top 10 on NFLPickWatch in straight-up NFL picks for four of the past six years, outperforming more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em participants during that timeframe. For those who have followed its guidance, the results have been favorable.
Now, the model has focused on the Patriots vs. 49ers matchup and has finalized its predictions for Week 4. Here are some of the current NFL betting lines:
49ers vs. Patriots spread: 49ers -10.5
49ers vs. Patriots over/under: 42 points
49ers vs. Patriots money line: 49ers -595, Patriots +438
Reasons the Patriots could cover:
The Patriots aim to replicate their earlier season success with another unexpected road victory. In Week 1, they managed to beat the Bengals 16-10 as 7.5-point underdogs, demonstrating their potential. Given the 49ers’ recent struggles and their missing key players on both offense and defense, New England might capitalize on this opportunity.
Rhamondre Stevenson leads the Patriots’ rushing attack and, despite a lackluster performance against the Jets in Week 3, he accumulated a total of 201 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the first two weeks. To keep the potent 49ers offense off the field, New England will likely rely heavily on Stevenson’s abilities when the game is close.
Reasons the 49ers could cover:
Even in the absence of key offensive players like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers showed promise during their last game against the Rams. They let a 24-14 lead slip away in the fourth quarter due to the offense’s inability to produce in crucial moments. Quarterback Brock Purdy had a strong performance, amassing 292 passing yards and three touchdowns despite the loss.
With Samuel and Kittle sidelined, wide receiver Jauan Jennings stepped up alongside Brandon Aiyuk, making significant contributions against the Rams’ secondary with 11 receptions for 175 yards and three touchdowns. To bolster the San Francisco offense, Aiyuk and Jennings will need to find opportunities against an effective New England defense. Running back Jordan Mason has also been a standout, accumulating 324 rushing yards and two touchdowns during McCaffrey’s absence.
How to make predictions for Patriots vs. 49ers:
The model has simulated the New England and San Francisco matchup 10,000 times and has reached conclusions. It favors the Under on the total points, indicating one side of the spread exceeds 50% probability. The model’s definitive pick can be accessed at SportsLine.
With the outcome of the 49ers versus Patriots matchup and the spread details available, be sure to visit SportsLine for predictions based on the model’s successful track record, which includes an impressive 188-130 performance on top-rated picks in the NFL.