Zach Ertz currently stands as the TE16 in fantasy points per game, having achieved two tight end one finishes this season, but not since Week 6. His performance metrics show he ranks eighth among tight ends for deep targets and 18th for red zone opportunities. However, the upcoming return of Patrick Surtain significantly impacts the dynamics of the Denver Broncos’ pass defense, which will likely shift back to a single-high safety scheme that was effective earlier in the season.
During Weeks 1-7, with Surtain on the field, Denver employed single-high sets at a rate of 59.2%, one of the highest in the league. Following Surtain’s absence, the defense adjusted to a two-high scheme, which diluted the effectiveness against tight ends. This week, as Surtain returns, Ertz faces a daunting challenge; against single-high defenses, he has only managed a 15.8% target share and 1.08 yards per route run, with an 18.7% first-read share.
Moreover, while the Broncos have allowed only four receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season, they have given up the third-highest yards per reception and the 11th-most total receiving yards per game to the position. Given these statistics, Ertz may not be a viable streaming option this week, indicating a tough matchup ahead for the veteran tight end. Fans and fantasy managers alike will need to adjust their expectations as Ertz looks to navigate this challenging Denver defense.