La Niña conditions are projected to develop over the next three months across the Pacific, as indicated in an announcement made after the 17th convening of the Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF-17) held in Port Vila, Vanuatu. The statement from the World Meteorological Organization’s Regional Association V (WMO RA V) Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network serves as vital guidance for the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of 15 Pacific nations as they gear up for the Tropical Cyclone Season, which runs from November to April.
The WMO’s statement suggests that a weak La Niña event is expected to manifest from November 2025 to January 2026. This signifies that while La Niña conditions may be present, the intensity and duration are not anticipated to reach the levels typically associated with powerful La Niña events. Conditions are expected to revert to a neutral state by the first quarter of 2026.
La Niña is characterized by intensified trade winds pushing warmer surface waters across the Pacific towards the western portion. This results in increased sea surface temperatures in Western Pacific nations such as Palau, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu, while Central and Eastern Pacific countries like Nauru, Kiribati, Tuvalu, and the Cook Islands will experience cooler temperatures.
During the PICOF-17 meeting, experts reached a consensus that a weak La Niña is likely to unfold. Historically, La Niña has significant implications for weather patterns—leading to higher rainfall and a greater risk of flooding in the Western Pacific and, conversely, less rainfall and drought conditions in the Central and Eastern regions. Countries in the Western Pacific region may face heightened cyclone activity due to increased warm ocean waters, while those in the Eastern Pacific are generally expected to experience drier conditions, reducing the likelihood of tropical cyclones during this period.
As the upcoming tropical cyclone season approaches, communities across the Pacific are encouraged to stay informed through their National Meteorological Services and organizations like the Pacific Community (SPC) and the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP). Preparedness will be crucial as these weather patterns develop, allowing communities to navigate the potential challenges posed by La Niña while also harnessing opportunities for resilience in agricultural and water management systems.
The interplay between natural climatic events and climate change remains a critical focus as regions adapt and prepare for both the challenges and potential benefits these weather phenomena may bring to communities throughout the Pacific. Through vigilance and proactive measures, there remains hope for mitigating adverse impacts and fostering long-term resilience.