Russia’s oil processing sector has demonstrated unexpected resilience this year, with a decline of only 3% despite facing significant obstacles, particularly from intensified drone strikes initiated by Ukraine. Recent sources indicate that Russian refineries have effectively utilized spare capacity to cushion the impact of these attacks, which have been aimed at disrupting Moscow’s primary revenue sources tied to its operations in Ukraine.
Since early 2025, Ukraine has ramped up its drone assaults into Russian territory, specifically focusing on vital infrastructure such as oil refineries, storage facilities, and pipelines. This offensive has targeted at least 17 major refineries, leading Russia to reduce fuel exports and bolster its drone defenses significantly.
Although the peak periods of hostilities from August to October resulted in up to 20% of refining capacity being sidelined due to both drone strikes and mandatory maintenance, this did not trigger a catastrophic decline. Overall, total Russian refining volumes saw a 6% drop, translating to approximately 5.1 million barrels per day, which is about 300,000 barrels less than the previous year.
From January to October, the broader oil processing metrics indicate a decline to around 220 million metric tons, equating to roughly 5.2 million barrels per day—a modest 3% decrease compared to the previous year. This data highlights the complexities of the ongoing conflict, showing that while the scale of Ukrainian attacks could imply a more severe impact, Russian refineries have adapted well to sustain production levels.
Amid the ongoing military operations, there are still signs of potential diplomatic outcomes, as the international community closely watches developments. Both sides remain engaged in dialogue, which may yield pathways to peace, reflecting a shared hope to end the hostilities and restore stability to the region.