Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) is projected to announce its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 29, 2026, prior to the market opening. The Zacks Consensus Estimate forecasts that the aerospace giant will generate revenues of approximately $19.83 billion, reflecting a 6.5% increase compared to the same quarter last year. However, the expected earnings per share are estimated to be around $6.24, which represents a decline of 18.6% from the results reported in the previous year.
In recent times, Lockheed Martin has experienced consistent earnings performance, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, with an average surprise rate of 13.29%. However, current indicators suggest a challenging quarter ahead. The earnings prediction model indicates that LMT may not beat the earnings estimate this time, as it currently shows an Earnings ESP of -9.36% along with a Zacks Rank of 3, which signifies a “Hold” rating.
Positive sentiments surrounding the company can be drawn from its robust production contracts, particularly in the Aeronautics segment, where the F-35 jet program is expected to contribute to higher sales volume. Additionally, increased production of tactical and strike missile programs is likely to favor the Missiles and Fire Control segment’s performance. The Rotary and Mission Systems segment should similarly benefit from the ramp-up in production of the CH-53K helicopter within the Sikorsky division.
Furthermore, growth in the Space segment is anticipated thanks to strategic missile defense programs, including the Next Generation Interceptor. The total backlog for the fourth quarter is estimated at $185.66 billion, signifying a year-over-year increase of 5.5%, which bodes well for future operations.
Despite these positive contributors, several factors are expected to impact LMT’s bottom line negatively. Increased tariff-related expenses may counterbalance some of the positive effects from rising sales volume and improved operational efficiency. Moreover, charges associated with specific classified programs, as well as ongoing losses from the Canadian Maritime Helicopter Program and the Turkish Utility Helicopter Program, along with uncertainties regarding tax-related costs, could weigh on earnings.
In the face of these challenges, investors may find opportunities in other companies within the industry. Notably, Draganfly (DPRO) and Intuitive Machines (LUNR), both possessing favorable Earnings ESP metrics and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), could represent potential investment options. Draganfly has an Earnings ESP of +13.33%, while Intuitive Machines boasts an impressive +221.62%.
As Lockheed Martin prepares for its earnings report, stakeholders remain hopeful for strong sales driven by the expansion of key production lines, while also keeping a cautious eye on the potential hurdles that may arise.