Chileans are preparing to cast their votes in a presidential runoff this Sunday, where José Antonio Kast, a far-right candidate heavily inspired by Donald Trump, is emerging as the frontrunner. Kast, a 59-year-old former congressman, has campaigned on a controversial platform that includes building a wall along Chile’s borders to curb illegal immigration and expelling tens of thousands of undocumented migrants.
Kast will face off against Jeannette Jara, 51, a former labor minister under President Gabriel Boric, who finished the first round with 26.9% of the vote compared to Kast’s 23.9%. While Jara is backed by a leftist coalition, Kast benefits from a fragmented right-wing opposition that collectively garnered more than half of the votes in the initial round. Polling trends suggest Kast is likely to win, influenced by a wave of public concern over security and immigration issues in Chile.
Analysts have urged caution, however, as this election marks the return of compulsory voting after more than a decade. Historically, a significant portion of the electorate—around a third—had abstained from voting. Claudia Heiss, a political scientist at the Universidad de Chile, points out that approximately 5 million voters who tend to be distrustful of the political system could play a crucial role in the outcome of the runoff. Their previous engagement in the first round favored right-wing populist promises, but their voting behavior remains uncertain.
The unpredictable dynamics of the electorate are further complicated by the presence of economist Franco Parisi, who secured 20% of the vote, positioning himself as an outsider. Unlike other right-wing candidates, Parisi did not endorse Kast, leading to speculation about where his supporters’ votes will land. Many may choose to spoil their ballots in protest, given Parisi’s refrain from aligning himself with either extreme of the political spectrum.
Kast’s rise comes amid rising concerns over crime linked to an increasing migrant population, particularly from Venezuela. Despite his alarmist claims—such as stating that “1.2 million people are murdered each year in Chile”—the actual homicide rate remains low compared to regional standards, with about 1,200 murders annually.
Both candidates profess to prioritize security, though their approaches differ. Jara advocates for building new prisons and biometric identification for undocumented migrants, while Kast’s plan includes aggressive measures such as construction of detention centers and a military presence along the borders.
Kast’s admiration for right-wing leaders, including El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, further signals his approach to governance, which prioritizes strict law enforcement. However, despite his vocal support for Trump’s policies, there has been no endorsement from the former U.S. president, marking a contrast with other Latin American elections this year where Trump has been accused of meddling.
With the election poised to shape Chile’s future, the contrasting visions of Kast and Jara underscore the nation’s grappling with complex issues around migration, security, and political engagement. The results of the runoff could signify a significant shift in the political landscape, bringing to the forefront the contentious debate surrounding immigration and governance in Chile.