Middle Tennessee is favored by 6.5 points as they prepare to host the New Mexico State Aggies in an exciting college basketball matchup on February 28 at Murphy Center, with tip-off scheduled for 1:00 PM CT in Murfreesboro, TN. The total points for the game is set at 146.5.
According to predictive models, Middle Tennessee has a strong chance of winning, with an estimated 68.7% confidence based on various factors, including past performances, player conditions, and recent match statistics. Additionally, the spread model suggests Middle Tennessee is likely to cover the 6.5-point spread with a 55.6% confidence rate.
Both teams have had their ups and downs this season. New Mexico State has demonstrated a robust assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.3, which is the best among Conference USA teams, and they have limited their turnovers to an average of 10.6 per game, contributing to their competitive edge. However, their shooting statistics, particularly a 46% shooting percentage from inside the arc, rank them among the lower-performing teams in Division 1 basketball.
Conversely, Middle Tennessee struggles offensively, having recorded the lowest assist-to-turnover ratio at 0.7 last season and averaging 9.8 assists per game, which is also one of the weakest in the division. They have averaged only 65.0 points per game and shot 30% from three-point range, reflecting the need for improved offensive strategies.
Defensively, New Mexico State has excelled, allowing just 30% shooting from three-point range since the start of the 2024-25 season, a statistic that ranks them third in Division 1. They also held opponents to a low shooting percentage last season. Middle Tennessee, on the other hand, has demonstrated strong perimeter defense, allowing only 6.8 made three-pointers per game, which ranks them positively among their conference peers.
As both teams gather for this pivotal matchup, fans and bettors alike are watching closely. With both teams having their strengths and weaknesses, the game promises to be a thrilling contest filled with potential surprises.