The National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued an updated hazards outlook, designating certain areas of Maryland just east of the immediate region as being at risk for “Heavy Snow.” This advisory comes as meteorologists closely monitor a potential winter storm that is anticipated to develop from Sunday into Monday.
Despite some advancements in forecasting models, uncertainty remains regarding the specifics of the storm’s path. Central to the forecast is a developing low-pressure system expected off the Mid-Atlantic coast, which could heavily influence snow distribution. Much of the variability in predictions stems from the different trajectories suggested by forecasting models, particularly with respect to how far west significant snowfall may extend.
Meteorological analyses indicate that the European model has consistently suggested a storm path further south and closer to the coast. Recent data indicated a slight shift northward, highlighting the dynamic interplay between southern and northern jet streams that may lead to a more pronounced trough over the eastern United States if conditions align favorably.
FOX5 meteorologist Mike Thomas remarked that the WPC Heavy Snow Threat map has seen limited changes overall, though it now includes the Virginia Beach area in its risk zone. Ensemble data reflects a growing confidence that light snowfall is likely for the Washington area, as both European and American ensemble models now indicate over a 90 percent probability of snow occurrence.
Furthermore, the likelihood of disruptive snowfall—defined as 2 inches or more—in the DC area is now estimated to exceed 50 percent, a notable increase from earlier predictions. However, the prospects for a major storm, characterized by 8 inches or more of snow, appear to have diminished, with ensemble forecasts now suggesting only about a 10 percent chance of such amounts.
At this time, forecasters emphasize the need for continued observations rather than absolute expectations, as minor shifts in the storm’s trajectory could result in significant impacts across the region. As the situation evolves and the storm approaches, forecast confidence is projected to improve, offering clearer insights into the anticipated winter weather conditions.