With their impressive victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11, the Denver Broncos not only jeopardized the Chiefs’ hopes of clinching the AFC West title, but they may have also significantly impacted their playoff prospects. This is the first time this season that projections suggest the Chiefs, under star quarterback Patrick Mahomes, will miss the playoffs. Since Mahomes took over as starting quarterback in 2018, the Chiefs have been perennial postseason contenders, reaching at least the AFC Championship Game each year.
The current scenario raises the question of which teams might fill the playoff void should the Chiefs fall short. To provide insight into the evolving playoff landscape, weekly projections will be based on analytics from Stephen Oh of SportsLine. These projections utilize simulations to estimate each team’s playoff chances based on remaining schedules.
Looking at the AFC playoff picture, the top contenders include the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, and Jacksonville Jaguars.
The New England Patriots (9-2) are currently positioned to secure the AFC East title, benefitting from the easiest remaining schedule among playoff hopefuls. The Denver Broncos (9-2), who have not claimed a division title in a decade, have a strong 78.5% chance of winning the AFC West and boast the highest Super Bowl odds in the AFC with a 9.5% chance of winning it all.
The Indianapolis Colts (8-2) face the toughest remaining schedule among AFC teams, while the Baltimore Ravens (5-5) have dramatically improved their chances of winning the AFC North following a four-game winning streak. The Buffalo Bills (7-3) remain in contention for a wild card spot, but their struggles on the road, particularly in playoff games, remain a concern. The Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) still hold a solid position for the playoffs despite recent setbacks, and the Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) find themselves in a tight race with both the Chargers and Chiefs for the final wild card positions.
As for the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles lead the conference with an 8-2 record, showcasing a remarkable head-to-head advantage against other contenders. The Los Angeles Rams, with a similarly strong record, are poised to take the NFC West title. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions are engaged in a competitive battle for their respective divisions, while the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, and Green Bay Packers are shaping the wild card competition.
The playoff race is heating up as teams strive to secure their spots, showcasing the excitement and unpredictability that makes the NFL so captivating. As the weeks progress, each game will prove crucial, and viewers can expect weekly updates to track the changing dynamics of the playoff landscape.