The No. 16 Virginia Cavaliers, boasting a 15-2 record, are poised to face off against the SMU Mustangs, who sit at 13-4, in a highly anticipated college basketball matchup set for 12 p.m. ET on January 17, 2026, broadcast on ESPN2. Virginia enters the game as a slight favorite, with a spread of 1.5 points and a moneyline of -140. The total for the game is set at 153.5 points.
Virginia has significantly exceeded expectations this season, marking an impressive beginning under new head coach Ryan Odom. The Cavaliers currently rank inside the top 15 in several key metrics, including the NET rankings, positioning them as serious contenders for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Their record is complemented by notable away victories against teams like Louisville and NC State, underscoring their capability to perform outside of their home arena.
Key to Virginia’s success is their dominant presence on the offensive glass, where they rank fifth nationally in offensive rebound rate. This prowess is supported by the interior defense of their centers, Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso, who excel in protecting the rim and creating additional scoring opportunities. Rookie star Thijs de Ridder has emerged as a versatile player, while veteran guards like Malik Thomas and the efficient Chance Mallory add depth to the squad.
Conversely, the SMU Mustangs have also made a name for themselves as formidable NCAA Tournament contenders under head coach Andy Enfield. Their impressive NET ranking of 32 and a mark of 25th in Wins Above Bubble illustrate their growing stability as they transition into conference play. SMU’s recent thrilling victory over Virginia Tech, sealed by a dramatic half-court buzzer-beater from Boopie Miller, adds to the anticipation of their upcoming game.
The Mustangs are propelled by a strong backcourt consisting of Miller, Jaron Pierre Jr., and B.J. Edwards, who collectively share responsibilities in both scoring and playmaking. Their efficiency in transition places them among the top teams nationally. However, SMU has faced challenges defensively, ranking poorly in defensive efficiency within their conference, which could pose issues against Virginia’s strong offensive rebounding.
With both teams showcasing distinct strengths, the Cavaliers’ height and rebounding ability could play a pivotal role in the outcome. Virginia’s prowess on the boards may exploit SMU’s relative weaknesses in defensive rebound rate, making for an intriguing contest. Despite the Mustangs’ strength in mid-range shooting, the expectation is that Virginia’s interior game will prevail.
As the game approaches, anticipations are high for a competitive thriller, and with predictions favoring an over on the total points, excitement is building for this clash in Dallas.