As 2025 comes to a close, the average tariff rate in the United States has increased significantly to over 15%, a notable surge from approximately 2.5% at the beginning of the year. This transition has occurred during President Donald Trump’s second term, with little indication of an imminent reduction in tariffs as 2026 approaches.
Trump’s last significant tariff adjustment was made in November, when he lifted tariffs on products such as coffee and cocoa. However, his administration seems steadfast in maintaining elevated tariff levels on a broad range of goods. Current estimates indicate that the average applied tariff rate is 15.8%, with the effective tariff rate for consumers estimated at 16.8%, marking the highest levels in at least eight decades, according to analyses from the Tax Foundation and the Yale Budget Lab.
A review by Yahoo Finance suggests that 2026 could see tariffs consistently around the 15% mark, indicating a trend of stasis rather than significant shifts in tariff policy. Bloomberg Economics has characterized the global economic landscape as needing to adjust to the enduring nature of American protectionism.
In a recent interview aired on CBS’s Face the Nation, Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America, mentioned that tariffs appear to be in a phase of “starting to deescalate.” He anticipated that businesses increasingly focused on the American market could see rates adjust down to around 15%, although he acknowledged that specific sectors might face exceptions.
The stability of these tariff rates may also hinge on legal developments. With the Supreme Court currently reviewing the legality of various tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, an unfavorable ruling could initiate broader implications, such as potential tariff refunds. Nevertheless, analysts from JPMorgan have suggested that even such a ruling might not drastically alter the current tariff levels. Instead, the administration could invoke provisions to maintain the 15% tariffs temporarily while exploring more sustainable alternatives.
Despite possible upheavals in tariff authority, observations from Bloomberg Economics indicate that while some tariffs may be rolled back, it is likely that rates will remain largely unchanged, reflecting a new norm in U.S. trade policy. This indicates a continuous balancing act for the global economy, which must adapt to the realities of American protectionism for the foreseeable future.