As we enter Week 12, the spotlight turns to UCF as they face off against the dominant Texas Tech Red Raiders, who are enjoying one of their best seasons on record. With a remarkable 9-1 standing, Texas Tech is currently atop the Big 12 and looks poised to make its first-ever trip to the College Football Playoff, boasting an impressive 89 percent chance of securing a spot, according to ESPN’s analytics.
On Saturday, Texas Tech enters the matchup as a significant 23.5-point favorite against the UCF Knights. A few seasons ago, UCF was a rising powerhouse in college football, registering a 35-4 record between 2017 and 2019. However, the transition to the Big 12 under head coach Gus Malzahn has been challenging, and the Knights have struggled to keep pace in their new conference.
Malzahn’s earlier success at UCF had him embracing the philosophy of “UCFast,” emphasizing speed and tempo. Yet, in his current tenure, the team’s tempo has significantly slowed, ranking 75th nationally in seconds per play. While the Knights’ offense sits at 64th in yards per play and 94th in points per game, their defense has shown resilience, standing among the top 30 in defensive metrics. UCF has been particularly effective in pass defense, occupying 19th place in yards allowed per pass, and 18th in passing yards allowed per game.
Texas Tech’s quarterback, Behren Morton, initially hailed as a dark horse Heisman candidate, has faced injury setbacks, which has affected his recent performance. Despite a commendable outing against BYU in Week 11, Morton may not be at full strength against UCF, leading the Red Raiders to handle him with caution. This situation could play to UCF’s advantage, as their defense might match up well against an injured Morton, making them a potentially lucrative bet as underdogs.
Moreover, Texas Tech’s recent victory over BYU—a landmark win for the program—could create a classic hangover effect, making this an opportune moment for UCF to capitalize on Texas Tech’s high. Given these factors, taking UCF at +23.5 could provide a favorable gamble for those looking to wager on this thrilling college football matchup.
Michael Leboff, a seasoned sports bettor with a decade of experience, provides insights that are rooted in game theory, helping bettors make smarter decisions in both mainstream and niche sports. This week, the game promises excitement and the potential for surprising outcomes as both teams vie for position in the ever-competitive landscape of college football.