A recent Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey reveals a competitive landscape in the special election for the U.S. Congress in Tennessee’s 7th district. The poll indicates that 48% of voters support Republican candidate Matt Van Epps while 46% favor Democrat Aftyn Behn. An additional 2% are considering one of the three third-party candidates on the ballot, with 5% remaining undecided. When leanings of undecided voters are considered, Van Epps’ support rises to 49% and Behn’s to 47%.
Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, commented on the election dynamics, stating that turnout will be crucial. Early voters favor Behn 56% to 42%, while those planning to vote on Election Day tend to support Van Epps 51% to 39%. Age also plays a critical role in voter preferences: 64% of voters under 40 back Behn, while support for Van Epps increases with age, reaching 61% among those over 70.
Gender also poses a notable divide in voter preferences. Men favor Van Epps by nine points, 51% to 42%, whereas women prefer Behn, 50% to 44%. Both candidates enjoy a similar overall favorable rating of 47%, with unfavorable ratings sitting at 41%.
The approval rating of President Trump among voters in the 7th District stands at 47%, with a disapproval rating of 49%. This marked decline from his previous standing in the district, where he carried a 22-point margin last November, can be attributed mostly to independents, among whom 59% disapprove.
Economic concerns top the voters’ list, with 38% identifying it as the primary issue. Other issues include housing affordability (15%), healthcare (13%), threats to democracy (13%), immigration (6%), crime (5%), and education (5%). Among those prioritizing the economy, 48% are inclined towards supporting Van Epps, while 44% opt for Behn.
The survey was conducted from November 22-24, 2025, sampling 600 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. Demographic details were calibrated to reflect party registration, education, age, and race as per U.S. Census data, providing a comprehensive view of voter sentiments in this pivotal election.
As election day approaches, the division among voters reinforces the potential for either candidate to gain ground, underscoring the evolving political landscape in Tennessee’s 7th District. The emphasis on economic issues suggests that voters are looking for leadership that resonates with their immediate concerns, which may influence the outcomes significantly.