Russia’s oil processing has shown a surprising resilience, decreasing by only 3% this year despite facing significant challenges, including Ukraine’s intensified drone attacks. Sources and data reveal that Russian refineries have managed to mitigate a sharper decline in fuel production by effectively leveraging spare capacity to counteract the damage incurred from these strikes.
With the aim of disrupting Moscow’s primary revenue sources for its ongoing operations in Ukraine, Ukraine has escalated its drone assaults deep into Russian territory, specifically targeting oil refineries, storage facilities, and pipelines. These attacks commenced in earnest at the beginning of 2025 and have included at least 17 major refineries, compelling Russia to curb fuel exports and enhance its drone defense mechanisms.
During the peak of hostilities from August through October, attacks alongside necessary maintenance actions sidelined up to 20% of Russia’s refinery capacity. Nonetheless, this did not result in a catastrophic downturn; total Russian refining volumes experienced a 6% decline, equating to about 5.1 million barrels per day, which is approximately 300,000 barrels per day less than the previous year.
Broader trends indicate that from January to October, overall oil processing fell to around 220 million metric tons, roughly 5.2 million barrels per day—marking a modest 3% decrease when compared to last year. This data underscores the complexities and nuances of the ongoing conflict. While the scale of Ukraine’s attacks may suggest a more significant impact, the adaptive strategies of Russian refineries have played a pivotal role in sustaining production levels.
Given the ongoing military operations, there remains a glimmer of hope for diplomatic resolutions, as the international community continues to monitor the situation closely. Despite the challenges posed by the conflict, both sides remain engaged in discussions that may lead to pathways for peace, reflecting a collective aspiration to bring an end to hostilities and return stability to the region.