This weekend, residents of Tampa, Florida, may experience an unusual weather phenomenon as cold temperatures and brisk winds sweep through the area, potentially leading to a few snowflakes. However, expectations should be tempered, as any snow that does fall is expected to be light and fleeting, with a likelihood of about 10–20%, concentrated mainly along the coast from Citrus County south through Pinellas and Hillsborough counties.
The anticipated cold snap is the result of a robust coastal storm intensifying near the Carolinas, coupled with a powerful Canadian high-pressure system pushing frigid air into the region. As a cold front moves through on Saturday, temperatures are expected to drop significantly, particularly during the afternoon, with northwest winds gusting between 15 to 25 mph.
As colder air moves over the relatively warmer waters of the Gulf, it may produce narrow bands of “Gulf-effect” clouds, which could lead to light showers offshore. If these clouds arrive onshore late Saturday night, the temperatures could dip into the mid to upper 30s, creating a brief window for light rain to mix with snowflakes or flurries. However, it’s essential to note that in such instances, drizzle might be confused with snowfall, though genuine frozen precipitation remains unlikely and would likely be short-lived.
Historically, snowfall in Tampa is a rarity. The last time significant snow accumulated in the area was on January 19, 1977, when the Tampa Bay region recorded approximately 0.20 inches of snow in Tampa and up to 2 inches in Plant City, according to the National Weather Service. This underscores just how infrequent such events are in this warm climate, highlighting a unique moment for Tampa should conditions align this weekend.
Though the likelihood of snow remains low, the chance to witness even a hint of winter is a noteworthy event for the residents of Tampa, providing a brief glimpse into a weather characteristic usually reserved for the Northern states.