The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, has elicited varied responses from military authorities across the Pacific region. In Papua New Guinea, former military strategists have raised alarms about the country’s vulnerability due to the recent enhancements at the Lombrum Naval Base in Manus.
To the north, U.S. military facilities in Guam and the Republic of Northern Marianas are currently on high alert, yet officials assert there is no immediate threat from the conflict. Meanwhile, in Fiji, Ro Naulu Mataitini, a former United Nations security expert, has expressed concerns over potential repercussions for the nation’s economy, particularly regarding fuel prices, tourism, and remittances.
Despite Fiji’s relatively muted public response to the conflict, the government led by Sitiveni Rabuka has shown support for Israel, establishing an embassy in Jerusalem in 2025. Rabuka has maintained close ties with the U.S. since his military coup in 1987. The strategic positioning of Papua New Guinea, with a significant U.S. security commitment of $864 million over the next decade, underscores its role as a critical military base in the Southwest Pacific and Southeast Asia.
This strategic importance has led Major-General Jerry Singirok, a former commander of the PNG Defence Force, to urge the Marape government to adopt a neutral stance regarding the ongoing hostilities. However, the refurbishment of the PNG-Australia-United States naval facility, worth $135 million, complicates the nation’s diplomatic positioning. Singirok cautioned that the detachment of Papua New Guinea from this global conflict could be precarious, stating, “While Papua New Guinea is geographically distant, the principle of escalation to a global ‘war of bases’ cannot be dismissed.”
The current conflict has already triggered a surge in oil prices, with fears surrounding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting global shipping routes. Thousands of travelers have been left stranded as the crisis unfolds, with implications for the broader economy of Papua New Guinea. As the U.S. and Israeli forces targeted Iranian leadership in a recent operation, Iranian forces retaliated with missile strikes, suggesting a protracted conflict may be underway.
Mataitini’s insights on the economic consequences highlight the need for Pacific nations to brace for rising fuel and food costs linked to global oil price hikes. He emphasized the importance of self-sufficiency and regional cooperation, advocating for strategic measures such as local food production to lessen dependence on imports. This approach aligns with his broader warning that small island nations could face neglect as global powers become caught up in their conflicts, ultimately affecting aid and support for crucial long-term needs like climate adaptation.
With predictions indicating oil prices could escalate from $82 to $100 per barrel amid an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Pacific region is urged to foster resilience through regional relationships and community efforts in preparation for the potential fallout from the global crises.