Rick Pitino has made remarkable strides in transforming St. John’s basketball, leading them to capture both the Big East regular season and tournament titles for the first time since the 1985-86 season and securing their first NCAA tournament bid since the 2018-19 season. With Pitino recently celebrating his 900th career win, there is excitement surrounding the program as they aim for their first national championship since 2012-13. However, despite these encouraging developments, concerns linger about St. John’s long-term viability as a serious contender in 2026.
The Red Storm currently boasts a 16-5 record, with an impressive 9-1 mark in conference play. Yet, many of those early-season losses were against formidable opponents, primarily at neutral sites, including defeats to Alabama, Iowa State, and Auburn. Their only setback in Big East play to date was a narrow January 3 loss to Providence at home. Fortunately, the team has rebounded with a seven-game winning streak.
Nevertheless, obstacles remain. A primary concern is their performance on the boards. While players like Zuby Ejiofor, averaging 7.4 rebounds per game, and Dillon Mitchell, contributing seven rebounds per game, have shown promise, the team lacks depth in rebounding. This has particularly affected their guards, with only Ozijyah Sellers recording over three rebounds per game. St. John’s ranks 39th in total rebounds per game but is 139th in opponent rebounds per game, indicating trouble on the defensive glass. They’ve been outrebounded in four of their five losses, underscoring the necessity of improving their rebounding to sustain success in the NCAA tournament.
Defensively, St. John’s presents a mixed bag. While they rank 21st in defensive rating according to KenPom, which suggests potential for tournament success, deeper metrics paint a less favorable picture. The Red Storm’s pace of play leads to increased scoring opportunities for opponents, allowing an average of 72.5 points per game, placing them 118th nationally. Their ability to generate blocks and steals shows promise, with rankings of 16th and 53rd respectively, yet their foul troubles—ranking 195th in the nation for fouls per game—and their performance against three-point shooters raise red flags. They allow 15 points per game from the charity stripe, a potential critical factor in tournament scenarios.
Historically, Rick Pitino’s NCAA tournament success has waned; he hasn’t coached a team past the first weekend since 2015, with St. John’s only making it past the round of 64 once in his tenure. The program itself hasn’t advanced beyond the second round since 1999-2000.
Looking ahead, St. John’s is currently projected as a six seed in the NCAA tournament, a positioning that historically has been vulnerable to first-round upsets. In fact, in the last 14 tournaments, six-seeds have been upset by eleven-seeds nearly 30 times. Even if they move up to a five seed, the specter of early exits looms, with five seeds frequently facing tough matchups.
Despite their recent success, St. John’s faces significant challenges in their quest for a deep NCAA tournament run. Their rebounding woes and defensive inconsistencies combined with historical precedents suggest that without considerable improvement, the Red Storm may find themselves on the receiving end of an upset, making this season an important yet precarious moment for the program.