Papua New Guinea is facing a critical challenge with its rapidly expanding population, which poses a significant risk to the country’s capacity to provide for its citizens within the next five years. Current projections indicate that the population could swell to 15 million by 2030, placing immense strain on the already inadequate infrastructure, healthcare systems, and labor markets.
“Population growth is clearly out of control,” asserts Kingtau Mambon, a lecturer at the University of Papua New Guinea, in his report titled, “Unwanted births and fertility in Papua New Guinea.” The nation’s population currently stands at approximately 11 million, with over 60,000 unplanned births occurring each year. The dire situation could compel PNG to increasingly rely on donor assistance in the upcoming decades, despite existing wealth from gas, timber, and mineral exports.
The geographical challenges within the country have exacerbated the situation. The rough terrain has hindered the expansion of the road network essential for agricultural development and has severely limited the provision of energy to remote villages, which is crucial for delivering education, health services, and maintaining law and order.
The alarming birth rates in PNG have been attributed to several factors. Firstly, access to family planning is limited, with only 37 percent of women having access to contraceptives, and even lower in rural areas at less than 35 percent. Early marriages and teenage pregnancies are also prevalent; for every 1,000 girls, 65 begin childbearing before the age of 20, marking the highest level in the region. Education gaps contribute to the problem as women with higher education typically marry later than those with less education. Additionally, cultural norms dictate that larger families are seen as beneficial for labor and security in rural communities.
Mambon’s research highlights significant strain on public services, with one doctor for every 40,000 patients and students piling up in overcrowded classrooms. Meanwhile, urban graduates find themselves facing an employment crisis with insufficient job opportunities to match the annual surge of new graduates.
To navigate these challenges, Mambon emphasizes the need for a sustainable shift in population growth. He argues that empowering families to make informed choices about childbearing could lead to better education, improved health outcomes, and reduced poverty. With over 60,000 unplanned citizens added to the population annually, it is clear that many women desire fewer children than they are currently having. Failing to address this disconnect could result in missed opportunities for both families and the economy.
Mambon’s research indicates that unplanned fertility varies widely across the nation based on wealth, region, and education levels. Poorer households tend to desire larger families, although they often exceed these targets. Additionally, while the Highlands region shows a preference for high fertility, actual outcomes are lower compared to other areas.
Without proactive policy interventions, annual births could skyrocket to over 370,000 by 2050, even under a conservative growth rate. Mambon suggests that mere family planning will not suffice; a combination of educational investments and encouragement of later marriages is necessary to significantly impact birth rates, ideally keeping them below 350,000 annually through the middle of this century.
Until these measures are implemented, the ticking demographic time bomb in Papua New Guinea remains a pressing concern, underscoring the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to manage the nation’s population growth sustainably.