A complex winter weather system has brought a mix of freezing rain, ice pellets, and heavy snow to Southern Ontario on Tuesday, creating challenging conditions across the region. This tumultuous weather is expected to transition into heavier snowfall for some areas as the evening progresses.
While the core of the weather system is projected to diminish later tonight and into the early morning hours, its effects will continue to influence travel conditions into Wednesday. Regions that have already experienced extended periods of freezing rain are unlikely to see temperatures rise sufficiently overnight, meaning that ice accumulation on untreated surfaces will persist, resulting in slippery roads, sidewalks, and driveways as residents prepare for the morning commute.
Given these unpredictable conditions, there is a high probability of school bus cancellations for Wednesday, particularly in rural areas where icy conditions on backroad networks can be especially hazardous. The forecast indicates a likelihood of thick fog developing overnight in parts of Southwestern Ontario, which could further decrease visibility and possibly lead to additional cancellations or delays.
Among the areas most susceptible to disruptions are Kingston, South Frontenac, South and Central Lennox and Addington, and Belleville, which fall under the Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, as well as Peterborough and Northumberland counties within the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board. These regions have been assigned a notable 75 percent chance of school bus cancellations due to the persistent forces of freezing rain and inability for road crews to adequately clear icy conditions before morning.
The remainder of the rural areas from Central Ontario to Southwestern Ontario lies in a more ambiguous situation. Many school boards in this category are likely to cancel bus operations based on localized road conditions, with factors such as further icing overnight weighing heavily on their decisions. This situation includes areas covered by Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, the Madawaska region of the Renfrew County District School Board, and others within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board.
Rural school districts across Southwestern Ontario may also face challenges due to the anticipated fog combined with lingering icy conditions, prompting a 50 percent chance of cancellations for several school boards in that region. These boards include Dufferin and Wellington counties under the Upper Grand District School Board and Grey County with the Bluewater District School Board.
For rural areas in the Ottawa Valley, there is a limited 25 percent chance of cancellations due to less significant icing, though isolated decisions cannot be completely ruled out if conditions worsen overnight. Similarly, areas in Simcoe County and Georgina covered by the York Region District School Board also carry a 25 percent chance of possible cancellations.
In the Southwestern Ontario region, including Guelph, Waterloo, and others, the likelihood of bus cancellations remains low, though patchy fog could pose a concern in certain localities. The chances for disruptions in these areas are more dependent on localized conditions as winter weather continues to unfold.
As Southern Ontario navigates through these winter weather challenges, residents are encouraged to stay updated on local alerts and to exercise caution while traveling. The resilience of the community during this unpredictable weather serves as a reminder of the importance of safety and preparedness in winter conditions.