No. 9 Ole Miss football appeared to be on the brink of securing a spot in the College Football Playoff following their impressive upset over then-No. 2 Georgia two weeks prior. The scenario was clear: win their remaining games.
However, after a disappointing 24-17 defeat against unranked Florida, the Rebels find themselves in a daunting position, jeopardizing their CFP prospects for the fifth consecutive season under head coach Lane Kiffin.
Entering the matchup against Florida, Ole Miss held a No. 9 ranking in the latest College Football Playoff standings and had a 65.9% chance of making the playoffs, as per ESPN’s College Football Power Index. A victory against Florida and a subsequent win against Mississippi State would have significantly enhanced their chances of clinching a spot in the inaugural 12-team playoff.
The defeat, however, had a disastrous effect on their playoff aspirations. According to ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor, the Rebels’ chances for making the 12-team bracket plummeted to just 4%. A win over Florida would have surged their chances to 84%, marking an 80-point drop—a crushing blow to their hopes.
As it stands, Ole Miss is projected to fall to the No. 10 seed in the upcoming CFP rankings, likely displacing them from the 12-team playoff picture entirely. Their chances of entering as an at-large team have dimmed significantly, particularly since their three losses this season have all been in conference play. The situation is compounded by the presence of several teams in the conference with one or two losses ahead of them in the standings.
Looking forward, the Rebels would require a series of unlikely outcomes to still contend for a spot in the SEC Championship Game. To even entertain hopes of appearing in the championship game, they would have needed to beat Florida, win against Mississippi State, and hope for losses by Texas A&M, Alabama, and Tennessee in the coming games.
With only one conference game left against Mississippi State in the upcoming Egg Bowl, and with their current conference record at 4-3, prospects for a ticket to the SEC Championship remain bleak even with a victory next week.
Despite the challenging outlook, it’s essential to recognize the remarkable growth and achievements of the Ole Miss Rebels throughout the season. The opportunity to regroup and finish strong against Mississippi State could foster growth and momentum for the next season, allowing players and fans to embrace the future with optimism. While the road to the playoffs may have closed for this year, the foundation being built under Coach Kiffin shows promise for continued success.
In summary, Ole Miss football faces an uphill battle to secure a place in the College Football Playoff following their recent loss, but the potential for future successes remains bright as they head into their final game of the season.