The No. 23 Louisville Cardinals are set to face off against the fifth-ranked Duke Blue Devils in an important Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) clash on Monday night. Louisville heads into the game after an impressive 85-71 victory over Virginia Tech, while Duke secured a solid win against Wake Forest, finishing 90-69. Currently, the Cardinals hold a record of 14-5 overall and 4-3 in the ACC, placing them in a tie for sixth in the conference standings. This season, they’ve struggled a bit on the road, with a record of 2-3. Conversely, the Blue Devils boast an excellent 18-1 record and remain undefeated in conference play at 7-0, including a strong home record of 9-0.
The highly anticipated showdown will tip off at 7 p.m. ET from Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina. In the latest betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook, Duke is favored by 8.5 points, with the total points set at 157.5.
As preparation for the matchup intensifies, the SportsLine Projection Model—known for its accuracy—has simulated the game 10,000 times, producing valuable betting predictions and insights. The model has shown exceptional performance with a 10-1 record on top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and a spotless 6-0 run on side picks this season.
The model suggests that the total points will go Under (157.5), noting that this outcome has occurred in each of the last four matchups between these two teams. Furthermore, the Under has also hit in five of Louisville’s last six games, along with two of the last three for Duke. The Cardinals have gone 4-6 against the spread in their last ten games, while the Blue Devils present a more balanced 5-5 record against the spread during the same period.
Individual performances are also projected, with Louisville expected to have four players reach at least 10.7 points, highlighting Ryan Conwell with a projected 17.7 points. For Duke, four players are projected to score 10 or more points, led by Cameron Boozer, who is anticipated to net 22.4 points. The model suggests the combined total will be around 157 points, allowing for the possibility of the Under prevailing in more than 50% of simulations.
With an expert model safeguarding against betting pitfalls, fans and bettors alike can look forward to this thrilling ACC matchup, where both teams will aim to solidify their standings in the conference.