The No. 12 Florida Gators (20-6) are set to face off against the Ole Miss Rebels (11-15) in a much-anticipated college basketball game on February 21, 2026, in Muncie, Indiana. The game will tip-off at noon ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.
Florida enters the matchup as significant favorites, boasting a 12.5-point edge on the spread and a moneyline of -950. The over/under for the game is set at 147.5 points.
Currently, Florida is on a remarkable run, having secured victory in 11 of their last 12 games while maintaining an impressive 11-2 record in SEC play. This strong performance places them two games ahead of their nearest competitor, Tennessee. Since the start of the year, Florida has emerged as a powerhouse, ranking second nationally in Bart Torvik’s analytics—only trailing Houston. Their rebounding has stood out, with the Gators pulling down offensive boards at a robust 41% rate, placing them third in the nation. Additionally, Florida has excelled in inside scoring, hitting 58% of their two-point attempts.
However, shooting from beyond the arc has been a challenge for Florida this season, as they currently sit at just 30% from three-point range, slightly improving from their season average of 29%. The performances of guards Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland will be crucial in this game. Lee has been particularly strong recently, scoring over 18 points in two of his last three games. In contrast, Fland’s inconsistency has been noted, but his contributions have proven beneficial when on point.
On the defensive side, Florida ranks fourth in defensive efficiency according to KenPom, limiting their opponents to just 44% shooting on two-pointers and 32% on three-point attempts. Rueben Chinyelu, a standout big man, has been integral to their solid defense, leading in defensive rebounding percentage and contributing significantly to their overall game.
Conversely, Ole Miss is struggling, currently riding an eight-game losing streak. Despite leading Texas A&M by 13 points with 11 minutes left in their last game, they were unable to close out the victory. The Rebels lack a clear identity, positioned 93rd in offensive efficiency and 78th defensively. A significant concern for Ole Miss has been their offensive production, ranking outside the top 200 in both two-point and three-point shooting percentages.
Ole Miss relies heavily on a trio of double-digit scorers, with AJ Storr leading the way. However, the team has faced challenges maintaining consistency in performance, which has plagued their ability to secure wins. Malik Dia and Ilias Kamardine also contribute but have struggled throughout the season.
In this matchup, Ole Miss must work to control rebounds against a formidable Florida team that excels in this area. While a 12.5-point spread may seem daunting, Florida’s recent road victories by margins exceeding 19 points against teams like Texas A&M, Georgia, and South Carolina indicate their dominance on the court. With their current form and depth, Florida is well-positioned to take home another victory in this SEC clash.
My prediction for this game is Florida to cover the spread of -12.5 points.