Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti will both be seeking to recover from opening losses when they face each other at the Nitto ATP Finals on Tuesday night.
Musetti, who holds a 3-1 lead in their head-to-head encounters, has yet to secure a win against De Minaur on hard courts. His victories include a 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 win at the 2024 Queen’s Club tournament and a 6-4, 6-2 win in Madrid shortly after a tight match resolved in a third-set tiebreaker at the Monte-Carlo Masters earlier this year. De Minaur’s sole triumph came during the 2022 Australian Open, where he won 3-6, 6-3, 6-0, 6-3.
Despite a strong showing throughout the 2025 campaign, Musetti narrowly missed direct qualification for the year-end championship, falling just one match short. After losing out to Felix Auger-Aliassime for the No. 8 spot in Paris, he competed in the Athens ATP 250 but was defeated by Novak Djokovic in an intense final, 4-6, 6-3, 7-5. Following this match, Djokovic announced his withdrawal from the Turin event, allowing Musetti to enter as the first alternate.
After a taxing two-hour and 59-minute contest against Djokovic, Musetti faced another challenge in his Group Jimmy Connors opener on Monday, where he fell to Taylor Fritz in straight sets, 6-3, 6-4.
Things won’t get easier as he prepares to take on the 26-year-old De Minaur, who has enjoyed a stellar season. De Minaur recently captured an ATP 500 title in Washington, D.C., and reached the quarterfinals in both of the hard-court Grand Slam tournaments. His recent performance in the fall swing has consistently placed him in the quarterfinals of all four events he has participated in. Although De Minaur lost to Carlos Alcaraz 7-6(5), 6-2 on Sunday, the match showcased his high-level play.
While the home crowd in Turin may provide Musetti with some inspiration, De Minaur’s solid form suggests he will have a significant advantage. The Australian has proven to be a challenging opponent, especially when the stakes are high and energy levels are low.
Predictions lean toward De Minaur winning in three sets, reflecting his strong performance and consistent track record against Musetti, particularly on hard courts.