As the NFL Wild Card weekend approaches, betting enthusiasts are keen on the rushing yards odds for the playoffs. Throughout the season, a notable trend has emerged: the most significant rushing performances are often linked to running backs on winning teams. In fact, 18 of the top 20 individual single-game rushing efforts this season came from players whose teams emerged victorious.
Throughout the season, running backs recording 150 or more rushing yards collectively averaged 21.8 carries per game, with every player receiving at least 12 attempts. Looking back to last year’s Wild Card weekend, four running backs surpassed 100 rushing yards, each contributing significantly to their team’s success with at least 23 carries.
This year, volume continues to be a critical factor in selecting running back candidates likely to enjoy spike rushing weeks. Notably, the Los Angeles Rams’ backfield has evolved into a split between Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. Since Week 6, Williams has received a majority of the carries at 57.7%, while Corum has accounted for 39.4%.
Among this year’s standout predictions for rushing yards in the Wild Card round, Saquon Barkley stands out with odds at +425. As the second-largest favorite, the Philadelphia Eagles have an exciting matchup against the 49ers. Barkley previously averaged 21.5 attempts per game during the regular season and recorded over 25 attempts in 75% of his playoff games, aiding the Eagles in their Super Bowl run last season. Despite averaging 17.5 attempts this year, the offensive dynamics are poised to favor Barkley’s workload, especially with the return of tackle Lane Johnson, boosting his effectiveness significantly.
In games where the Eagles have secured victories, Barkley has typically seen at least 18 rush attempts, indicating the likelihood of a volume-heavy game plan against a vulnerable 49ers defense. Last week, the 49ers faced 33 rushing attempts while defending against a trailing team, suggesting a potential high-carry game for Barkley should the Eagles establish an early lead.
In a twist, a longshot parlay bet for quarterback rushing yards is also gaining traction, with players like Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, Drake Maye, Josh Allen, and Trevor Lawrence expected to contribute at least 20 rushing yards each based on their second-half season performances. Interestingly, Jalen Hurts is excluded from this mix, as his average rushing yardage was lower than his peers during the final weeks of the season.
As excitement builds for the upcoming playoff games, the potential for thrilling rushing performances coupled with strategic game plans suggests a dynamic Wild Card weekend ahead.