The NFL MVP race has become a two-horse competition, centered around Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye as the season approaches its conclusion. After Week 12, both athletes have solidified their positions as the frontrunners due to their exceptional performances.
Just weeks ago, previous favorites Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen appeared poised for another MVP showdown. However, unexpected losses for the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have pushed them out of the spotlight, allowing Stafford and Maye to take charge.
Matthew Stafford has been on a remarkable streak, significantly enhancing his MVP odds, which have shifted from +135 last week to -235 this week, marking him as the clear favorite. In a commanding performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Stafford completed three touchdown passes and amassed 273 yards, contributing to his astounding achievement of 308 consecutive passing attempts without an interception—one of only eight streaks of over 300 attempts without a pick in the 21st century. His commanding play has been praised by analysts who note Stafford’s seamless comfort with the Rams’ offensive schemes under head coach Sean McVay, emphasizing a notable change to more play-action and under-center formations that suits Stafford’s game.
Currently, Stafford leads the NFL with a quarterback rating of 113.7 and 30 touchdown passes, while also ranking fifth in passing yards with 2,830. With a relatively manageable remaining schedule, including only two games against current playoff contenders, the Rams look well-positioned for a playoff run, bolstering Stafford’s MVP campaign.
In contrast, Drake Maye has also made headlines as the Patriots quarterback. Despite struggling in a narrow win against the Cincinnati Bengals—where he threw a pick-six—Maye showcased resilience, finishing with 294 passing yards and a touchdown to help the Patriots secure their 10th win and extend a nine-game winning streak. This performance has kept Maye’s MVP odds stable at +200, supported by his impressive league-leading total of 3,130 passing yards and a third-ranked QB rating of 110.7. However, the Patriots face challenges ahead, particularly with injuries to key offensive linemen that could complicate Maye’s performance.
The MVP pursuit has seen other notable candidates retreating. Josh Allen’s recent loss to the Texans, combined with his continuing interception woes, has relegated him to fourth place alongside Mahomes, both now sitting at +2000 odds. Meanwhile, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor failed to capitalize on a crucial game against the Chiefs, leading to a drop in his odds and potential MVP candidacy.
As the regular season progresses, the narrative surrounding Stafford and Maye remains compelling. Both quarterbacks have the opportunity to continue building momentum in the race for the MVP title as they approach challenging matchups in the coming weeks. With the excitement building, fans can anticipate thrilling showdowns that could ultimately determine the NFL’s most valuable player this season.