Lorenzo Musetti is set to face off against Raphael Collignon in the first round of the 2026 Australian Open on Monday. According to the latest analyses from Dimers’ advanced tennis model, Musetti is positioned as the favorite heading into this matchup.
In the simulations run by the predictive model, Musetti emerges as the likely victor with an impressive 82% chance of overcoming Collignon. The model predicts that Musetti has a 74% probability of securing the first set as well. If you’re considering betting on this match, Musetti is projected to have a 53% chance of covering the games spread of -5.5, while the total games under 38.5 has a 64% likelihood of being a successful bet.
Currently, the betting odds for this exciting clash reflect the anticipated outcome. Musetti’s moneyline stands at -375, while Collignon is at +365. As for the first set, Musetti is favored at -250 compared to Collignon’s +200. The game spread is set at -5.5 for Musetti with odds of -122, and +5.5 for Collignon at -110. The total games are listed as over 38.5 at -105 and under 38.5 at -140.
With the match poised to be a thrilling start to the tournament, fans are hopeful for a strong performance from Musetti, building on his projected advantages. Whether betting on the match or simply cheering from the stands, spectators can expect an engaging encounter as these two players clash in the first round of this prestigious event.