The Fiji Meteorological Service has announced that a La Niña event is currently active, with expectations of transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions in the coming months. In their recent Fiji Ocean Outlook, the agency expressed concerns regarding rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) projected across Fiji waters from February to April 2026.
These warmer seas heighten the risk of marine heat stress and coral bleaching, especially in shallow reef regions, which could adversely affect local marine ecosystems. The outlook indicates a shift in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) southward from its usual position, likely positioning it within Fiji’s Exclusive Economic Zone during the same timeframe. This displacement is anticipated to alter both rainfall patterns and ocean conditions across the islands.
Of particular concern is the coral bleaching forecast, currently assessed at Alert Level 1 for waters along the Coral Coast and throughout the Northern, Central, and Eastern Divisions of Fiji. A heightened ‘Warning’ status applies to other areas of Fiji waters, indicating significant thermal stress on coral reefs if elevated sea temperatures continue.
Additionally, the Fiji Meteorological Service has observed changes in sea level patterns. The period from February to April 2026 is expected to see below-normal sea levels for most of the Fiji Group, while Rotuma is predicted to experience above-normal sea levels.
Meteorologists emphasize the importance of continued observation, particularly for coastal communities, marine ecosystems, and fisheries. The combination of La Niña, rising sea temperatures, and shifting ocean-atmosphere patterns underscores the urgent need for vigilance in safeguarding Fiji’s marine environment and its natural resources, which are vital for the livelihoods of many residents. By closely monitoring these conditions, there is hope that effective measures can be taken to protect the delicate balance of Fiji’s marine ecosystems.